Fuel prices in Ghana are expected to rise during the first pricing window of October 2026, with diesel potentially reaching GH¢19.60 per litre as higher international petroleum prices and a weaker cedi put fresh pressure on the downstream market.
The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies projects petrol prices could increase by as much as 3.31 per cent to around GH¢17.91 per litre.
Diesel faces a steeper adjustment of between 3.32 per cent and 5.60 per cent, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas could rise by about 2.25 per cent to roughly GH¢17.06 per kilogram.
Actual prices at filling stations may differ among Oil Marketing Companies because the projections do not represent a fixed nationwide retail price.
Global Oil Prices Drive Pressure
COMAC said international market conditions were the biggest source of pressure during the October 1 pricing window.
Average crude oil prices rose 19.42 per cent to US$124.20 per barrel over the period used for the pricing assessment.
Refined product prices also climbed. Petrol increased by 2.43 per cent, diesel by 6.91 per cent and LPG by 8.55 per cent.
The Chamber linked the increases to strong physical crude demand despite signs of easing supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Uncertainty surrounding the US Iran conflict and developments around the Strait of Hormuz have kept petroleum markets volatile, while the Russia Ukraine war continues to create additional pressure on diesel markets.
The exchange rate is also working against consumers. COMAC said the cedi depreciated by 1.27 per cent to an average GH¢11.6321 against the US dollar between September 12 and September 26.
The Chamber estimates that the local currency weakened by 6.12 per cent during the third quarter of 2026, reversing part of its earlier gains.
Because Ghana imports a significant share of its finished petroleum products, movements in the exchange rate feed directly into the cost of bringing fuel into the country.
NPA Raises October Price Floors
The National Petroleum Authority has also adjusted its minimum price levels for the October window.
The petrol price floor has increased from GH¢16.00 to GH¢16.45 per litre, while diesel has moved from GH¢16.77 to GH¢17.97. The LPG floor increased from GH¢10.97 to GH¢11.10 per kilogram.
Those figures are not necessarily the final pump prices. Premiums charged by international oil trading companies and margins applied by importers, distributors and retailers are added separately under the petroleum pricing formula.
For motorists and businesses, the first October window therefore opens with renewed upward pressure after several months of sharp movements in international oil prices and the cedi.
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