Motorists and businesses bracing for another month of high fuel costs might get some breathing room soon.
Petrol and diesel prices are expected to decline in the second pricing window of October, offering some relief to motorists and businesses after successive increases in fuel prices.
The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies says the adjustments will take effect from October 16, 2026. This shift in fuel prices October 2026 comes as international market trends favour lower costs for refined products, though local currency pressures remain a risk.
COMAC Price Projections
The latest pricing outlook from COMAC projects a 1.67% reduction in petrol prices and a 3.32% decline in diesel prices. On a cash purchase basis, petrol is projected to sell at GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel is expected to retail at GH¢19.30 per litre.
These projected reductions could ease fuel costs for transport operators, businesses and households, although the extent of the relief will depend on the prices charged by individual Oil Marketing Companies.
The government industry intervention to cushion consumers against rising fuel costs also remains in place, helping to moderate diesel prices specifically. This continuity suggests the state is still wary of letting pump prices spike too aggressively despite the global dip.
Households relying on gas cylinders will not share in this relief. In contrast to petrol and diesel, liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to rise sharply by 18.50% in the second pricing window.
On a cash purchase basis, LPG is projected to sell at GH¢20.60 per kilogramme, reflecting the divergent price movements across petroleum products.
The increase could raise cooking costs for households and businesses that rely on LPG, potentially offsetting some of the relief from lower petrol and diesel prices.
The projected movements follow mixed changes in refined petroleum product prices on the international market. LPG recorded the highest increase of 7.77%, while diesel prices fell by 6.68% and petrol declined by 3.93%.
Cedi Depreciation and NPA Floors
Developments on the foreign exchange market could, however, limit the extent of relief from lower international petroleum product prices.
The cedi depreciated by 1.61% against the US dollar over the review period, trading at an average bank rate of GH¢11.8222 to the dollar between September 26 and October 11, 2026.
The local currency has lost more than 11% of its value against the dollar so far this year, with seasonal import demand and higher energy costs continuing to weigh on the exchange rate. Because Ghana imports refined petroleum products, a weaker cedi raises the local currency cost of purchasing fuel in dollars.
The National Petroleum Authority's minimum price floors for the second October window also reflect the expected decline in petrol and diesel prices, alongside the increase in LPG prices.
Petrol will have a minimum price of GH¢16.09 per litre, down from GH¢16.45 in the first pricing window of October. Diesel's minimum price will fall to GH¢17.09 per litre from GH¢17.97. For LPG, the minimum price will rise to GH¢13.87 per kilogramme from GH¢11.10 in the first window.
The price floors serve as minimum selling prices under the Petroleum Product Pricing Guidelines. All OMCs and LPG Marketing Companies are expected to comply with the applicable floors during the pricing window.
However, the floors exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies, operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies, and the marketing and dealer margins of OMCs and LPGMCs.
These charges are determined separately by the companies in accordance with the pricing guidelines. Consequently, actual pump prices may differ across outlets, depending on the additional costs and margins applied.
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