Rising fuel prices could undermine Ghana’s recent progress in controlling inflation, with higher energy costs expected to push up transport fares, utilities and broader consumer prices in the coming months, according to Deloitte’s latest monthly inflation outlook.
The warning follows a slight increase in Ghana’s inflation rate in April 2026, marking the first rise after 15 consecutive months of decline.
Inflation climbed to 3.4 percent in April from 3.2 percent in March, while month-on-month inflation accelerated sharply to 1.0 percent from 0.1 percent, the highest monthly increase since February 2025.
According to Deloitte, the latest figures suggest that the country’s disinflation momentum may be weakening as global oil prices and domestic fuel costs begin feeding into the wider economy.
Fuel Prices Seen Driving Broader Inflation
The report indicated that rising fuel costs could quickly spill over into transport fares and energy-related expenses, increasing pressure on households and businesses alike.
“Fuel price increases rarely remain confined to the pump,” Deloitte noted, warning that they often translate into higher food prices, logistics costs, production expenses and service charges across the economy.
The firm expects the Bank of Ghana to adopt a more cautious monetary policy stance despite the recent easing of inflation. Analysts believe the central bank may slow the pace of interest rate cuts to prevent inflation expectations from rising again.
Non-food inflation already showed signs of pressure in April, increasing to 4.2 percent from 3.9 percent in March. Deloitte attributed the rise largely to higher fuel prices, transport costs and persistent structural pressures in housing, utilities, water, gas and electricity.
The report also warned that possible exchange-rate volatility and rising service charges could intensify pressure on imported goods and the broader non-food inflation basket.
Food Inflation Risks Remain
Although food inflation eased slightly to 2.2 percent in April from 2.3 percent in March, Deloitte cautioned that seasonal factors could reverse the trend in the months ahead.
The decline in food inflation was supported by improved domestic supply conditions, favourable harvest periods and relative stability of the cedi, which reduced imported input costs for producers.
However, the report warned that supplies of staple foods such as maize, rice and cassava could decline later in the year, potentially placing upward pressure on food prices once again.
Among the sectors recording the highest inflation rates in April were Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 12.48 percent, Insurance and Financial Services at 7.9 percent, and Education Services alongside Restaurants and Accommodation Services, both at 7.5 percent.
Central Bank Faces Difficult Balancing Act
Deloitte said Ghana’s inflation fight has not been lost but warned that the easier phase of disinflation may now be over.
The report suggested the next challenge for policymakers will be preserving price stability while supporting economic growth amid growing risks from fuel costs, food supplies and currency pressures.
For businesses and consumers, the immediate concern remains how quickly higher fuel prices could spread through transport, utilities and food distribution systems, potentially raising the cost of living once again after months of easing inflationary pressure.
READ ALSO: Trump Says U.S. Won’t Rush Iran Nuclear Deal as Hormuz Talks Continue
