The International Monetary Fund has projected that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 53.0% by the end of 2026, up from 45.3% recorded in 2025, signalling a potential shift in the country’s recent debt trajectory.
The forecast, contained in the Fund’s Fiscal Monitor Report released during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., comes despite notable improvements in Ghana’s debt position over the past year.
Ghana’s debt metrics have improved significantly in the short term. According to the Bank of Ghana, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 61.8% in 2024 to 45.3% in 2025, with total public debt falling from GH¢726.7 billion to about GH¢641 billion.
However, the IMF noted that its projections are based on a “post-debt restructuring scenario,” without providing a detailed breakdown of the factors driving the expected increase.
Analysts suggest that the outlook could be influenced by a combination of borrowing trends, exchange rate movements, and economic growth performance.
Borrowing and Market Developments
Recent developments in the domestic debt market may also shape the trajectory. In April 2026, the government raised approximately GH¢2.7 billion through a 7-year bond issuance, marking a return to long-term domestic borrowing after the Debt Exchange Programme.
Market watchers caution that sustained borrowing or depreciation of the cedi could push the debt ratio higher, while slower-than-expected economic growth could further weigh on the outlook.
Data from the Ghana Statistical Service indicates that the size of the economy has expanded to an estimated GH¢1.4 trillion, up from GH¢1.1 trillion in 2024, offering some buffer against rising debt levels.
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has outlined measures aimed at maintaining debt sustainability, including expanding access to concessional financing, rebuilding the Sinking Fund, and implementing debt reprofiling and buyback programmes.
He emphasised that the government’s objective is to “manage debt, not be managed by it,” with a target of returning Ghana to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028.
The IMF projects that Ghana’s debt ratio could ease slightly to 50.7% in 2027 if reforms are sustained.
Beyond Ghana, the IMF warned of growing global debt vulnerabilities, projecting that worldwide public debt could reach 100% of GDP by 2029 due to rising spending demands and higher interest costs.
The Fund has called for “credible, well-sequenced fiscal adjustment” to address these risks, underscoring the importance of disciplined fiscal management both locally and globally.
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