Global cocoa prices are expected to decline significantly in 2026 after reaching record highs in recent years, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook published by the World Bank.
The report projects prices to fall from about $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to roughly $3.80 per kilogram in 2026, representing a sharp 51.3 percent drop. Prices are, however, expected to recover modestly to around $4.20 per kilogram in 2027.
The anticipated decline is largely attributed to a rebound in global cocoa supply following severe shortages that pushed prices to historic highs over the past two years.
According to the report, cocoa was among the commodities most affected by recent supply disruptions, which contributed to strong price increases across global markets.
Broader Commodity Trends
The outlook forms part of the April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, which also signals a wider easing in beverage commodity prices, including coffee.
The beverage price index is expected to decline considerably in 2026 after experiencing strong growth in 2024 and 2025.
Improved production conditions and gradual normalisation of global supply chains are expected to ease price pressures moving forward.
Analysts say the projected decline could bring relief to manufacturers and consumers, while also reshaping dynamics in cocoa-producing countries as markets adjust to more stable supply levels.
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