Global oil prices fall to the lowest level targets since late August as crude markets slid for a third consecutive session, rattled by signals of diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran alongside recovering Persian Gulf shipping flows.
By settlement on November 10, 2026, January Brent crude futures dropped $1.08 to close at $91.49 per barrel, after dipping below the key $90 psychological mark during intra-day trading. December West Texas Intermediate fell $0.81 to settle at $86.04 per barrel.
Trump De-escalation Talk Drives Market Sell-Off
The price slide picked up momentum following statements from US President Donald Trump, who publicly indicated that additional military strikes against Iranian targets were "highly unlikely" and characterized the conflict as "effectively over".
The comments triggered systematic fund selling across long crude positions, supported by early signs of normalizing shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tanker operator Bahri successfully routed four vessels through the strategic chokepoint on November 10, bringing total Persian Gulf exports to 4.4 million barrels per day at the end of October.
A strengthening US dollar, following hotter-than-expected inflation data, applied further downward pressure on crude futures.
Mixed Supply Signals and Pipeline Attacks
Despite the market sell-off, fundamental supply risks remain active across the Middle East. Tehran has formally rejected US diplomatic terms, maintaining its naval blockade of regional waters.
Simultaneously, an attack targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline on November 9, proving that transit security remains fragile.
While OPEC+ chose to keep December production quotas unchanged ahead of its full ministerial meeting on November 29, the International Energy Agency continues to revise up its global supply surplus forecasts for 2027.
Refined Products Feel the Pressure
Downstream refined markets reflected the broader crude weakness, though product cracks showed varying resilience.
Gasoline markets traded within a tight band. The front-month 92 RON swaps crack eased to between $11.10 and $11.15 per barrel, down from $12.74, while physical spot cracks settled at $10.46 per barrel. Traders continue to monitor Chinese export allocations against steady regional Asian demand.
Naphtha experienced weaker sentiment as Middle East tension eased and regional freight rates dropped. However, physical prompt supply remains tightly constrained, holding spot prices $45.25 per metric ton above the first-month contract in a steep backwardation structure.
Jet fuel and kerosene markets softened due to regional oversupply, with the Singapore cash differential falling to –$1.51 per barrel, marking its eleventh straight negative session. Despite the cash discount, jet cracks stayed firm at $55.37 per barrel for spot delivery.
Gasoil cracks posted the strongest performance across all refined products at $58.66 per barrel spot, even as the November-December swaps spread narrowed to $1.27. E
uropean gasoil imports for November are projected to drop to 2.4 million metric tons from 3.5 million tons in October, while ARA independent stocks rose by 60,000 metric tons to 1.781 million tons.
Fuel oil cash premiums are expected to soften as lower freight rates encourage eastbound arbitrage shipments, though High Sulfur Fuel Oil prompt supply remains exceptionally tight with 380 CST premiums holding at $44.75 per metric ton.
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