Ghana could face a serious Ghana fertilizer supply crisis as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt global fertilizer supply chains, the Chamber of Agribusiness Ghana (CAG) has warned.
In a media statement issued, the Chamber said the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has effectively halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors for energy and agricultural inputs.
According to the Chamber, the disruption could significantly affect Ghana’s agricultural sector, which relies entirely on imported raw materials for fertilizer production.
“Through the Strait of Hormuz flows 31% of the world’s urea, 44% of its sulfur, 18% of its ammonia, and 15% of its processed phosphates,” the statement said, warning that the interruption of shipments poses immediate risks to fertilizer availability in Ghana.
Shipping companies have reportedly suspended transits through the waterway while war-risk insurance has been withdrawn, making commercial transportation through the corridor largely unviable.
Ghana’s heavy reliance on fertilizer imports
The Chamber highlighted Ghana’s structural vulnerability to global fertilizer market disruptions, noting that the country imported 554,239 metric tonnes of fertilizer in 2024, making it the third-largest importer in West Africa.
Unlike several large agricultural economies, Ghana does not produce primary fertilizer inputs domestically and instead blends imported raw materials into finished fertilizer products.
“As a country that blends imported raw materials into fertilizer products but does not produce any primary inputs, Ghana pays the world price in full whenever global supply is disrupted.” - Chamber of Agribusiness Ghana (CAG)
The warning comes at a time when Ghana’s food system is already facing pressure. According to the Chamber, national food insecurity reached 38.1 percent in the third quarter of 2025, while maize production dropped by 28 percent following the 2024/25 drought.
Rising prices and potential food insecurity
The disruption has already triggered sharp reactions in global fertilizer markets. Urea prices at the New Orleans barge market have risen by between $60 and $80 per metric tonne within the first six days of the conflict, with analysts warning that prices could surge further if the crisis persists.
The Chamber outlined several possible scenarios depending on how long the conflict continues. A short-term de-escalation within three weeks could push fertilizer prices up by 15 to 20 percent and increase Ghana’s fertilizer import bill by up to $55 million, potentially raising food insecurity levels to 42 percent.
However, if the conflict continues for three to nine months, fertilizer prices could rise by as much as 90 percent, adding up to $175 million to Ghana’s fertilizer costs and pushing food insecurity to between 45 and 50 percent.
In a worst-case scenario where the conflict lasts beyond nine months, fertilizer prices could surge to between $1,000 and $1,400 per tonne, potentially driving food insecurity levels as high as 65 percent.
Calls for urgent policy intervention
To cushion the potential impact, the Chamber is urging the government to introduce emergency policy measures to stabilize fertilizer supply.
Among its recommendations are the immediate suspension of fertilizer import tariffs and levies, which currently impose an estimated 12 percent duty burden on imports.
The Chamber also called for urgent government-to-government procurement arrangements with Morocco’s OCP Group to secure alternative fertilizer supplies outside Gulf shipping routes.
Additional proposals include strengthening agricultural credit support for fertilizer importers, restoring subsidy distribution mechanisms under the Planting for Food and Jobs programme in northern Ghana, and establishing a national fertilizer strategic reserve.
Despite the uncertainty, the Chamber encouraged farmers to continue planting while adopting more efficient fertilizer application techniques such as micro-dosing and intercropping with legumes.
“The Strait of Hormuz crisis demonstrates the vulnerability of Ghana’s agricultural system to global supply shocks,” the Chamber said, adding that long-delayed efforts to establish domestic fertilizer production and strategic reserves should now be treated as national priorities.
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