Ghana's fuel prices are expected to open higher from today, September 1, as rising international crude oil and refined petroleum product prices outweigh recent gains by the cedi.
The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies projects petrol could increase by as much as 4.80% during the September 1 to 16 pricing window, taking the average price to around GH¢16.39 per litre.
Diesel is expected to rise about 2.10% to approximately GH¢17.60 per litre.
Liquefied petroleum gas offers some relief. COMAC projects LPG to decline by 0.93% to roughly GH¢13.73 per kilogramme.
The figures are projections, meaning actual prices at filling stations will differ as oil marketing companies adjust their margins and respond to competition.
Global Product Prices Cancel Out Cedi Gains
The main pressure is coming from international markets.
Crude oil prices increased 1.75% during the reference period, moving from US$90.53 per barrel to US$92.11.
The change was sharper for refined products. International petrol prices rose 8.86%, diesel increased 5.51% and LPG prices climbed 3.31%, according to COMAC.
Those movements overwhelmed an otherwise favourable exchange rate.
The cedi appreciated by 3.64% to an average GH¢11.3697 to US$1 between August 12 and August 27, reversing three consecutive pricing windows of depreciation.
A stronger cedi normally reduces the local cost of petroleum imports because importers need fewer cedis to purchase the dollars required for international payments.
This time, however, the international price increase was simply larger.
For consumers, the cedi’s appreciation has therefore acted more as a cushion against a steeper fuel price increase than a trigger for cheaper petrol and diesel.
Government Extends Diesel Intervention
Government has also moved to limit the pressure on diesel consumers.
A government source cited by Joy Business indicated that authorities have extended a GH¢2 per litre reduction in the regulatory margin on diesel into the first September pricing window.
The intervention was originally expected to expire at the end of August after covering two pricing periods.
Its continuation means part of the international price increase will not immediately be passed on to consumers.
Without the measure, diesel prices would have moved above COMAC’s projected GH¢17.60 per litre.
The intervention is particularly important for freight operators, logistics companies, construction businesses and manufacturers that depend heavily on diesel.
Higher diesel prices can quickly find their way into transportation, distribution and production costs.
NPA Raises Minimum Pump Price Floors
The National Petroleum Authority has also adjusted the minimum prices at which petroleum products can be sold during the window.
The petrol floor has been set at GH¢14.53 per litre, while diesel has been fixed at GH¢15.60.
The diesel minimum is up from GH¢15.19, an increase of about 2.69%, while the petrol benchmark rose by roughly 4.38%.
The LPG price floor moved in the opposite direction, falling from GH¢10.98 to GH¢10.85 per kilogramme.
With more than 200 oil marketing companies competing in Ghana, those floor prices should not be confused with uniform national retail prices.
Some operators may change their pumps immediately, while others could delay adjustments as they watch competitors.
Fuel Increase Adds Another Inflation Risk
The wider concern is what higher petrol and diesel prices mean beyond filling stations.
Fuel sits inside the cost structure of almost every part of the economy. Commercial transport uses it directly. Food distribution, haulage, manufacturing and construction also depend on it.
An increase at the pump can therefore reappear in transport fares and the prices of goods if businesses pass additional costs on to consumers.
Ghana’s stronger cedi has helped ease imported inflation in recent months, but the latest pricing window shows the limit of that protection.
A sufficiently sharp increase in international petroleum prices can erase much of the benefit of currency appreciation.
For motorists and businesses entering September, that is the immediate reality. The cedi has strengthened, but global energy prices have moved faster, leaving petrol and diesel consumers facing another increase at the pumps.
