Ghana's inflation could rise marginally to around 5% in August, finance and tax analyst Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi has projected, pointing to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their possible impact on fuel prices.
His projection comes after annual headline inflation eased sharply to 4.6% in July 2026, down from 5.3% in June. Food inflation also declined to 3.1%, while non food inflation stood at 6.1%.
Mr. Kuagbedzi, however, believes the recent movement in fuel prices could interrupt the downward trend, even if the increase remains limited.
“Even though transportation prices have not been increased, I expect a marginal increase in inflation for the month of August. But I don’t foresee inflation going beyond 5% by the end of August.” - Mr. Kuagbedzi
Fuel Prices Remain Critical
According to Mr. Kuagbedzi, pump prices provide an important signal of where costs across the wider economy could be heading.
Fuel price changes can feed into transportation, logistics and operating expenses for businesses. Even where transport fares remain unchanged, higher fuel costs can gradually squeeze businesses and influence prices elsewhere.
The immediate concern, he said, is what happens to global oil prices as tensions in the Middle East evolve.
Middle East Tensions Key to Outlook
Mr. Kuagbedzi said a reduction in geopolitical tensions could ease pressure at Ghanaian fuel pumps and, by extension, support the inflation outlook.
“If the geopolitical tensions actually recede in the Middle East, then we expect prices at the pump to also come down marginally,” he noted.
For now, the inflation path remains closely tied to fuel prices and external developments. A sharp escalation in the Middle East could complicate Ghana’s recent disinflation trend, while calmer markets could keep August inflation below the 5% threshold.
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