The Middle East oil market is becoming increasingly difficult to read as the prolonged conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt key shipping routes, leaving traders, governments and energy companies with fewer reliable signals about global oil supply.
In an analysis by Reuters, energy columnist Ron Bousso said the war has created major blind spots that are reshaping oil markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's busiest energy corridors.
Oil Flows Become Harder to Track
According to Bousso, uncertainty over the volume of crude and liquefied natural gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz has intensified following renewed attacks on oil tankers and the continued blockade of the strategic waterway.
"Even after the renewed blockade and multiple Iranian attacks on tankers, I'm still hearing there is a significant volume of oil and gas transiting through Hormuz. How much exactly we don't know, and we probably won't know for a long, long time, if ever." - Bousso.
The picture has become even more complicated as Iranian-backed Houthi rebels threaten vessels near Bab al-Mandeb at the entrance to the Red Sea.
Some tankers are reportedly diverting through the Suez Canal, while others are believed to be switching off satellite tracking systems, making cargo movements harder to verify.
Market Left Guessing
Bousso argued that uncertainty now extends beyond supply routes. The impact of the conflict on global oil demand is also proving difficult to measure, leaving markets with limited visibility at a time when price volatility has returned.
Perhaps the biggest unknown, he noted, is how long the conflict will continue. While some analysts expect a return to a ceasefire, others believe the crisis could drag on for months or even years.
"All this is filtering through to crude and refined product prices, making investment decisions much harder for companies and governments," Bousso observed.
Summing up the growing uncertainty, he borrowed from former U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's famous remark on "known unknowns," concluding: "Today, one thing is certain: we know that we know far less."
The widening information gap, he suggests, is becoming almost as significant as the geopolitical crisis itself, leaving global energy markets navigating uncertainty with fewer reliable indicators than at any point since the conflict began.
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