Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector is showing signs of recovery, with rising production and stronger revenue giving the country reason for cautious optimism, Chairman of the Public Interest and Accountability Committee, Richard Ellimah, has said.
Mr Ellimah said the improvement offered welcome relief after years of concern about declining output.
He pointed to production gains and increased petroleum receipts as encouraging developments, while warning that higher international oil prices accounted for much of the revenue growth.
“We are seeing a steady increase in production figures,” he said in the supplied interview transcript.
His assessment suggests a more hopeful outlook for the industry, although sustaining the recovery will require continued investment and careful management of earnings.
Output rises as petroleum receipts improve
PIAC’s figures for the first half of 2026 show crude oil production increased by 11.73 per cent, from 18.42 million barrels in the corresponding period of 2025 to 20.58 million barrels.
Petroleum receipts rose by about 52 per cent to US$561.41 million, compared with US$370.34 million a year earlier.
The difference between the pace of production growth and the sharper increase in revenue matters. Mr Ellimah cautioned that stronger prices, rather than an equivalent expansion in the volume of oil produced, were largely responsible for the additional earnings.
He expressed hope that the improved performance could support a stronger result for the year. That outlook remains dependent on conditions in the international market and the performance of Ghana’s producing fields.
Save the gains before prices turn
Mr Ellimah urged prudent management of the additional revenue, stressing the need to prepare for periods when oil prices fall.
His concern is that a favourable market can change quickly, leaving government with less petroleum income than anticipated. Spending decisions based on a temporary price surge could therefore create difficulties when receipts weaken.
Ghana’s petroleum savings framework provides two distinct safeguards.
The Ghana Stabilisation Fund is intended to cushion public spending against unexpected petroleum revenue shortfalls. The Ghana Heritage Fund preserves an endowment for future generations when petroleum reserves have been depleted.
Both are managed by the Bank of Ghana within the country’s petroleum revenue management framework. Their purposes distinguish money needed to absorb an immediate fiscal shock from savings intended to outlast oil production.
Investment outlook draws cautious optimism
Mr Ellimah also linked his optimism to signs of renewed investor interest and a more receptive policy environment.
He indicated that changes in government’s approach could help address concerns that had discouraged investment and made reinvestment difficult.
The government has separately outlined proposals to make Ghana’s upstream industry more competitive, particularly for deepwater and frontier exploration.
Energy and Green Transition Minister John Abdulai Jinapor said in September that proposals included changes to royalty arrangements, longer loss carry forward periods and more flexible exploration and development terms.
He described them as measures awaiting approval, rather than completed legislative changes.
Recovery must translate into sustained activity
The Petroleum Commission’s 2026 business outlook also identifies investment, exploration opportunities and a predictable regulatory environment as priorities for the sector.
Its account places the review of the legal and fiscal framework within a wider effort to increase upstream activity.
For Mr Ellimah, the immediate improvement offers grounds for hope. The longer test is whether Ghana can maintain production, attract capital and retain enough of today’s earnings to withstand a weaker oil market.
Stronger receipts provide breathing room. They do not remove the need to protect the country’s savings or secure the investment on which future production depends.
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