New polling data from Global InfoAnalytics has revealed signs of weakening grassroots support for the National Democratic Congress in the Volta and Oti regions, traditionally regarded as strongholds of the party.
The findings, presented by Executive Director Mussa Dankwah, indicate that NDC support in the Volta-Oti bloc currently stands at 41 percent, below its national average of 45 percent. The poll also highlights a significant share of floating voters at 21 percent, alongside 15 percent of respondents who declined to disclose party affiliation.
Analysts say the data points to emerging dissatisfaction within the NDC’s core base. While the party still leads in the region, a notable proportion of its supporters appear open to alternative candidates.
In a hypothetical 2028 presidential contest, Cassiel Ato Forson leads with about 45 percent against Mahamudu Bawumia, who polls 22 percent. However, only 58 percent of NDC supporters indicate they would back Dr. Forson, with others shifting toward rival or independent candidates.
NPP Yet to Capitalise
Despite the NDC’s challenges, the New Patriotic Party has not made significant gains in the region. Dr. Bawumia retains strong loyalty within his base but struggles to expand his appeal beyond it.
Among floating voters, Dr. Forson commands 50 percent support compared to Dr. Bawumia’s 10 percent, suggesting the NDC still holds an advantage among undecided voters, though internal cohesion remains a concern.
The poll also points to growing interest in alternative political figures. Candidates such as Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako collectively attract about 21 percent support, reflecting a shift toward non-traditional options.
This trend is particularly visible among disaffected NDC supporters, signaling a potential reshaping of the political landscape if sustained.
Fragmented Voter Behaviour Emerges
The data reveals increasingly fluid voter behaviour, with preferences spread across multiple candidates and high levels of indecision. Among voters who declined to disclose party affiliation, support is widely distributed, reinforcing what analysts describe as an unpredictable electorate.
Mr. Dankwah described the pattern as “unusual behaviour,” warning that the Volta and Oti regions could become key battlegrounds ahead of the 2028 elections.
For the NDC, the findings underscore the need to rebuild trust within its base and consolidate support. For the NPP, the challenge lies in converting dissatisfaction into electoral gains.
As voter preferences continue to evolve, the rise of third-force candidates and growing fragmentation suggest that traditional political strongholds may no longer be as secure as they once were.
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