S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s credit rating at B-/B with a stable outlook, pointing to stronger gold sector performance and ongoing fiscal reforms while warning that debt servicing costs, the Bank of Ghana’s financial position and fiscal risks associated with GoldBod remain important vulnerabilities.
The rating covers Ghana’s long and short term foreign and local currency sovereign obligations. S&P also maintained its B- transfer and convertibility assessment.
The B category remains below investment grade and signals that Ghana retains material credit vulnerabilities despite improvements in its economic position.
The latest assessment follows S&P’s upgrade of Ghana from CCC+/C to B-/B in November 2025 and an earlier affirmation in March 2026.
Gold Sector Strengthens Ghana’s External Position
S&P said expansion in Ghana’s gold sector has supported the country’s external metrics, while the economy has shown resilience despite disruptions associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
High gold exports have become increasingly important to foreign exchange inflows and Ghana’s broader balance of payments position.
In its March assessment, S&P noted that stronger gold exports and favourable terms of trade had helped rebuild foreign currency buffers and support economic activity. It also highlighted Ghana’s exposure to movements in gold, cocoa and oil prices.
Fiscal reforms are another factor supporting the rating.
The country has transitioned from its US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility arrangement with the International Monetary Fund to a 36 month, non financing Policy Coordination Instrument intended to anchor continued reforms and maintain policy credibility.
BoG Balance Sheet Remains a Concern
S&P, however, raised concerns about the financial position of the Bank of Ghana, particularly following the costs associated with the domestic gold purchase programme.
The IMF has similarly said the programme weakened the central bank’s balance sheet, with losses linked to gold operations, open market operations and exchange rate valuation effects contributing to a negative equity position at the end of 2025.
Under reforms agreed in 2026, responsibility for domestic gold purchase operations was transferred from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and the government, with the aim of ending related quasi fiscal activities at the central bank.
The IMF has also called for a credible recapitalisation plan for the BoG.
S&P said fiscal costs associated with GoldBod could remain elevated, adding to contingent liabilities facing the state.
S&P Warns of Downgrade Risks
The ratings agency said Ghana’s stable outlook reflects improving external performance and fiscal reforms against still high debt servicing costs, implementation risks and exposure to commodity price movements.
A downgrade could occur over the next 12 to 18 months if fiscal slippages significantly increase borrowing needs or if weaker performance at state entities and the central bank strains government finances.
S&P also identified weaker export volumes or deteriorating terms of trade as potential risks.
Debt restructuring remains another area to watch, particularly if negotiations with remaining creditors stall over comparability of treatment under the G20 Common Framework.
For Ghana, the unchanged rating means the recovery in sovereign creditworthiness remains intact, but the assessment also makes clear that sustaining it will depend on fiscal discipline, completion of debt restructuring and tighter management of risks linked to the central bank and state owned entities.
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