Ghana’s Ghana sovereign credit rating has been affirmed at ‘B-/B’ by S&P Global Ratings, with the agency maintaining a stable outlook as the country pushes ahead with debt restructuring and fiscal reforms.
The decision offers a measure of confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery, even as the country continues to navigate high debt service costs, reform risks and exposure to commodity price swings.
In its latest assessment, S&P said the stable outlook reflects a balance between “stronger balance-of-payments performance” and “improvements in Ghana’s fiscal outcomes,” while acknowledging persistent vulnerabilities.
Fiscal Reforms and Debt Restructuring Support Outlook
S&P said Ghana is nearing the end of its broad debt restructuring programme, which began after the country’s December 2022 default.
According to the agency, the government has either completed restructuring or reached agreements in principle on close to 97% of debt within the restructuring perimeter.
The ratings agency noted that Ghana had already exchanged its local currency debt in 2023 and restructured $13.1 billion in eurobonds in October 2024.
It also cited recent progress involving the African Export-Import Bank and holders of Saderea commercial notes, saying those developments have helped ease earlier tensions among creditors over restructuring terms.
That progress, S&P suggested, is helping to rebuild confidence in Ghana’s public finances and financing outlook.
Gold Boom, Reserves and Current Account Lift External Position
The agency also pointed to stronger external balances, driven largely by favourable commodity prices, particularly gold.
S&P said improved terms of trade helped Ghana post a current account surplus of $9.35 billion in 2025, equivalent to 8.1% of GDP, while gross foreign currency reserves climbed to a record $14.5 billion.
It added that Ghana’s gold trade remains central to that improvement, even as the country adjusts export routes in response to instability in the Middle East.
According to the report, much of Ghana’s gold had been transported to Dubai for refining, but shipments are increasingly being redirected to markets such as India.
S&P also credited the current administration with introducing policies designed to reduce fiscal slippages, including a mandatory 1.5% of GDP primary surplus and a medium-term debt target of 45% of GDP by 2034.
Risks Still Weigh on Ghana’s Credit Profile
Despite the more positive signals, S&P made clear that Ghana’s credit profile remains constrained by structural weaknesses.
The agency warned that the rating could come under pressure over the next 12 to 18 months if fiscal reforms stall, deficits widen or debt service costs rise sharply enough to undermine the government’s refinancing capacity.
It also flagged the risk of weaker export performance if prices for gold, cocoa or oil fall more sharply than expected.
S&P said the rating could also face downside pressure if the final stages of debt restructuring are delayed by disagreements among creditors under the G20 Common Framework.
Beyond debt risks, the agency noted that Ghana remains vulnerable to erratic weather, external shocks and imported inflation, particularly given the economy’s reliance on agriculture and commodity exports.
Growth Outlook Remains Positive
Still, the overall tone of the assessment suggests cautious optimism.
S&P expects Ghana’s economy to benefit from ongoing revenue reforms and relatively strong growth, forecasting average expansion of 5.5% through 2029.
That projection, if supported by disciplined fiscal management and stronger reserve accumulation, could eventually improve the country’s access to foreign financing.
For now, the affirmation of Ghana’s rating at B- with a stable outlook signals that while the country is not out of the woods, markets are beginning to acknowledge the gains from recent reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.
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