Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could have serious consequences for food prices in Ghana, according to Joe Jackson, who warns that the impact could extend far beyond the oil market.
Speaking during an NorvanReports X Space Discussion on Implications of Strait of Hormuz Closure for Ghana’s Food Economy, Jackson explained that a prolonged disruption to the key maritime oil route could significantly increase costs throughout the food supply chain.
“I’m going to come from the premise that the Strait of Hormuz has a de facto closure,” he said, explaining that the route may not be formally shut but could effectively become unusable if insurers, shipping firms and logistics operators refuse to operate there.
Energy costs embedded across the food system
According to Jackson, if the disruption persists for around 90 days, Ghana’s food inflation challenges could intensify because energy costs affect every stage of the food system.
“Ghana’s food inflation problem will come less from direct imports from the Gulf and more from the fact that energy is embedded in every stage of the food system,” he said, listing processes such as shipping, milling, irrigation, cold storage, fishing and market transport.
Because Ghana remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products, rising fuel prices could quickly translate into broader inflationary pressures and even currency weakness.
Regional competition for food imports
Jackson also highlighted the regional implications of supply disruptions, noting that Ghana is part of a wider West Africa food market.
If shipping costs rise and delivery schedules become unreliable, importers across the region could begin competing for limited supplies of key staples.
“Importers across West Africa will start competing aggressively for the same rice, the same wheat, the same edible oil, and the same feed cargos.” - Joe Jackson
Such competition, he explained, would tighten supply across regional markets and push prices higher even if ports remain open.
Jackson therefore urged policymakers and businesses to monitor developments closely, warning that rising energy costs could ripple through the entire food economy.
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