Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for the Ghana current account surplus in 2026 to 7.8 percent of gross domestic product, citing a stronger-than-expected trade performance during the first half of the year.
The new projection is considerably higher than the research firm’s previous forecast of 5.2 percent of GDP and points to a healthier external position for the country.
Ghana recorded a merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion between January and June 2026. That was far above the average first-half surplus of US$700 million recorded between 2016 and 2025.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
Gold and oil exports drive gains
The strong trade balance was powered mainly by robust gold exports and rising crude oil shipments, according to the firm.
Higher export receipts brought more foreign exchange into the economy and strengthened Ghana’s ability to meet payments to overseas suppliers, lenders and investors without creating the same level of pressure on external reserves.
The performance also came in above Fitch Solutions’ expectations, forcing the firm to reconsider its outlook for the full year.
Commodity dependence remains a risk
The bigger surplus gives Ghana a useful buffer against external shocks, but much of the improvement remains tied to commodities.
Gold continues to provide a large share of the country’s export earnings, while crude oil shipments are sensitive to production levels and movements in international prices. A reversal in either market could quickly narrow the trade advantage.
Fitch Solutions expects the current account surplus to moderate in 2027, although it projects that the balance will remain sizeable.
For now, the upgraded forecast captures an unusually strong first half. Whether Ghana can hold that position will depend on export volumes, commodity prices and the country’s ability to build stronger non-traditional exports alongside gold and oil.
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