The success of Ghana's economic recovery will ultimately depend less on today's macroeconomic numbers and more on whether fiscal discipline, stronger tax compliance and infrastructure investment continue beyond the current budget cycle.
That is the view of economist and political risk analyst Dr Theophilus Acheampong, whose review of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget points to structural reforms that are beginning to reshape the country's public finances.
At the centre of his assessment are three policy reforms that he believes explain Ghana's recent turnaround.
The first is tighter fiscal management through commitment authorisation and expenditure controls. The second focuses on modernising the tax system. The third combines fiscal policy with measures to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and stabilise the cedi.
According to Dr Acheampong, these reforms helped shift Ghana's primary balance from a 2.9 per cent deficit to a 2.5 per cent surplus, while supporting exchange rate stability and reserve accumulation.
Borrowing Costs Continue to Fall
Debt sustainability has also improved considerably.
Dr Acheampong noted that debt servicing has fallen from 55.7 per cent of domestic revenue in 2022 to 28.6 per cent in 2025.
The latest joint assessment by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank now classifies Ghana's debt as sustainable with room to absorb shocks, while the country's debt distress rating has improved from high to moderate.
Lower interest rates are beginning to filter through the financial system.
The 91-day Treasury bill rate declined to 5.7 per cent by June 2026, while the average commercial lending rate dropped from 30.2 per cent at the end of 2024 to 15.6 per cent.
Reserves Rebuild as Revenue Strategy Changes
Ghana's external position has also strengthened.
Gross international reserves reached US$12.9 billion, equivalent to about five months of import cover, while government has budgeted GH¢5 billion this year to support the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP).
On taxation, Dr Acheampong argues that government is pursuing a different approach.
Instead of increasing tax rates, authorities are relying on technology, compliance and a broader tax base.
He highlighted digital VAT systems, Fiscal Electronic Devices, customs reforms supported by artificial intelligence and a VAT reward scheme as measures expected to lift non-oil tax revenue to 14.1 per cent of GDP in 2026.
Infrastructure Delivery Takes Centre Stage
The economist also pointed to visible progress on infrastructure delivery.
Construction has begun on 87 Big Push projects, including trunk roads, bridges, urban roads and feeder roads, with 13 projects already exceeding 50 per cent completion.
Preparatory work is also advancing on the proposed Accra-Kumasi Expressway, where 122 kilometres of right-of-way have already been cleared and US$1.7 billion lodged in a dedicated Bank of Ghana account ahead of procurement.
At the same time, implementation of the 24-Hour Economy policy continues to expand, with hundreds of fuel stations, manufacturers and other businesses adopting multi-shift operations.
For Dr Acheampong, however, the challenge has shifted.
"The bottom line: Ghana's macroeconomic indicators have improved markedly.
"The next phase is turning these lower borrowing costs into more private investment, translating compliance technology into more revenue, and project allocations into fully completed infrastructure, enhanced exports and more jobs." - Dr Acheampong
His assessment leaves little room for complacency. The recovery is becoming more visible. Delivering tangible economic opportunities, he suggests, will be the harder test.
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