Ghana's fuel market is once again watching events in the Middle East with caution as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran inject fresh uncertainty into global crude oil prices.
The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) says the unfolding geopolitical situation has become the biggest risk to petroleum price stability, although it remains optimistic that crude oil prices will stay below the psychologically important US$100 per barrel mark.
Speaking in an interview, COMAC Chief Executive Officer Dr. Riverson Oppong said global energy markets had become increasingly difficult to predict because political decisions, rather than economic fundamentals alone, were now driving price movements.
"We're just hoping, and fingers crossed that this does not escalate the price above $100, which I believe we're not going to see," he said.
Forecast Faces Geopolitical Test
According to Dr. Oppong, COMAC's earlier projections had placed crude oil prices within the US$70 to US$80 range, provided global conditions remained relatively stable.
That outlook largely played out before fresh geopolitical tensions resurfaced.
"I was optimistic with the forecasts, and I mentioned and predicted that we were going to see the 80s, which we saw.
"We came to $74, $75, and it is still within the forecast that was made because the concern was that if everything was equal, that's what we were going to see in the market." - Dr. Oppong
He admitted, however, that forecasting oil prices becomes far more complicated when international political developments shift unexpectedly.
"In forecasting, nobody can predict the mindset of any leader who is geopolitically strong like Trump. That's the only disadvantage we have during our forecasting," Dr. Oppong said.
Under more stable conditions, he believes crude prices could have eased even further.
"If things were the same, we believe that we would have seen that for a long time and, if possible, drop to between $65 and $67." - Dr. Oppong
Panic Buying Emerges Despite Adequate Stocks
The uncertainty has already begun influencing consumer behaviour in Ghana.
Dr. Oppong revealed that some motorists and businesses have started purchasing fuel in larger quantities over fears that prices could rise if tensions worsen. Still, he stressed there is no immediate reason for alarm.
"We've observed panic buying, but it is not anything to worry about. We still have stocks in the country," he assured.
His comments are expected to calm concerns among consumers as international markets continue reacting to military and diplomatic developments involving Washington and Tehran.
COMAC also criticised some businesses for adjusting fuel prices before new petroleum imports reflecting higher international costs have arrived.
Dr. Oppong described such pricing decisions as unfair to consumers.
"We've seen some businesses also increasing their prices already in the midst of it, which I always say is very wrong because we believe they are selling products that were brought in some time ago." - Dr. Oppong
He added that panic buying itself is unlikely to create shortages, suggesting some of the increased demand may instead reflect efforts by oil marketing companies to protect expected revenues should import costs eventually rise.
Global Developments Remain Key
International oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, where investors continue to assess the potential impact of any escalation between the United States and Iran on global crude supplies.
For Ghana, where petroleum prices are closely linked to movements on the international market, sustained geopolitical uncertainty could influence future fuel prices even if domestic supply remains adequate.
For now, COMAC's message is measured rather than alarmist. Fuel stocks are available, crude prices remain below the worst-case scenario, and the industry is hoping diplomacy ultimately prevails over further escalation.
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