Fitch Solutions expects Ghana inflation in 2027 to rise sharply, forecasting an annual average of 11.3% compared with 4.7% in 2026 as exchange rate support fades and domestic price pressures rebuild.
The UK based research firm said modest fiscal loosening, rapid money supply growth and higher imported food prices could reverse some of the disinflation recorded this year.
Broad money supply growth has already exceeded nominal Gross Domestic Product growth by 17.1 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026, a development Fitch Solutions considers a potential source of renewed inflationary pressure.
BoG Could Raise Policy Rate by 200 Basis Points
Fitch Solutions expects inflation to move above 10% during the second quarter of 2027, potentially forcing the Bank of Ghana back into a tightening cycle.
“As inflation accelerates and breaches the 10% mark in Q2, we expect the BoG to begin tightening, raising the policy rate by a cumulative 200bps by year end,” the firm said.
The forecast suggests that the central bank could move from its current cautious stance towards higher interest rates if inflationary pressures become persistent.
The outlook could worsen if tensions in the Middle East push global energy prices higher.
Fitch Solutions warned that a prolonged escalation could keep fuel costs elevated in Ghana, prompting the Bank of Ghana to begin tightening as early as November 2026 or raise rates by more than the currently projected 200 basis points.
El Niño Adds Food Price Risk
Weather conditions are another concern.
Fitch Solutions expects a strong El Niño event to peak towards the end of 2026, with the resulting pressure on global food prices likely to feed into Ghana through imported inflation in 2027.
The firm also forecasts Ghana’s current account surplus narrowing from 7.9% of GDP in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027.
That projection assumes gold prices ease from about US$4,400 per ounce to US$4,200, while cocoa production falls 9.1% due partly to El Niño related disruptions.
With the Bank of Ghana also targeting 15 months of import cover by 2028, Fitch Solutions expects policymakers to maintain positive real interest rates to support foreign portfolio inflows and reserve accumulation.
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