Ghana’s repeated pursuit of macroeconomic stability has failed to deliver the sustained productivity, employment and structural transformation needed to make the economy more resilient, University of Ghana Business School economist Professor Godfred Bokpin has argued.
Prof. Bokpin’s criticism cuts into a familiar feature of economic policymaking since the beginning of the Fourth Republic.
Governments have repeatedly focused on inflation, fiscal deficits, debt sustainability and currency stability, only for the country to return to another economic crisis years later.
“Since 1992, every budget has talked about macroeconomic stability, which is not an end in itself but a means to an end,” he said.
For him, the real test is what Ghana does with stability once it is achieved.
Stability is only the foundation
Ghana is emerging from its latest severe economic disruption following the 2022 debt crisis. The IMF supported programme has helped restore key indicators, including inflation, external reserves, debt restructuring and confidence in the cedi.
Prof. Bokpin has acknowledged those gains and described the decision to maintain fiscal consolidation through 2026 as reassuring.
But he says stabilisation cannot become the permanent measure of economic success.
“Stability is not an end but a foundation,” he has argued, calling for a progression from stability to resilience and ultimately structural and productivity transformation.
That distinction matters. Inflation can fall without enough jobs being created. A stable currency does not automatically make credit affordable for businesses. A lower fiscal deficit can coexist with inadequate investment in roads, irrigation, energy and industrial infrastructure.
The result is an economy that looks healthier in headline figures without necessarily becoming stronger for households and businesses.
Jobs must become an economic target
Prof. Bokpin has also criticised Ghana’s failure to place explicit employment targets at the centre of its macroeconomic framework.
His argument is straightforward: growth does not automatically create enough jobs.
Government spending, investment and industrial policy must deliberately support sectors capable of absorbing labour and raising productivity.
That becomes particularly important when fiscal consolidation relies heavily on expenditure cuts. While reducing spending can help restore fiscal discipline, prolonged compression of public investment could weaken the very productive capacity needed to generate future revenue.
Prof. Bokpin has therefore advocated stronger domestic revenue mobilisation alongside fiscal discipline, rather than allowing austerity to become a permanent economic strategy.
Commodity dependence remains a weakness
Ghana’s dependence on primary commodities presents another obstacle.
Despite repeated industrialisation programmes, the economy remains heavily reliant on commodities for exports, foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.
Agriculture, industrialisation, value addition, infrastructure and export diversification have appeared repeatedly in national development plans. Yet implementation has often changed with successive governments.
That inconsistency has helped preserve structural weaknesses that leave Ghana exposed whenever commodity prices fall, revenues disappoint or fiscal pressures intensify.
It also helps explain the country’s recurring engagement with the IMF. External programmes can impose discipline, restore reserves and rebuild confidence, but they cannot permanently replace domestic institutions capable of maintaining sound economic policies.
IMF discipline cannot replace domestic reform
Prof. Bokpin has supported Ghana’s move towards a Policy Coordination Instrument after the current IMF financing programme, viewing continued policy discipline as important for protecting recent gains.
But the framework, in his view, should not become a substitute for deeper reform.
The opportunity presented by the current period of relative stability is to invest in agriculture, manufacturing, infrastructure and value addition while deliberately creating productive employment.
The alternative is familiar.
Ghana stabilises after a crisis, celebrates improving economic indicators, and eventually rebuilds the same weaknesses that trigger another crisis.
After more than three decades of the Fourth Republic, Prof. Bokpin’s challenge is therefore less about whether Ghana knows how to stabilise. It does.
The harder question is whether the country can use that stability to build an economy that produces more, exports more value added goods, creates productive jobs and becomes resilient enough that macroeconomic stabilisation no longer dominates every generation of economic policy.
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