An IMF staff agreement Ghana PCI review outcome has been secured following a two-week mission to Accra, paving the way for Management and Executive Board approval of the country's non-financing policy framework.
Mission chief Ruben Atoyan led the team from October 22 to November 4, 2026, concluding that Ghana's macroeconomic stability is taking firm root even as external risks from Middle East tensions and commodity market swings linger.
"IMF staff and the Ghanaian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the first review of the PCI. The agreement is subject to approval by IMF Management and the Executive Board," Atoyan said in a statement released at the end of the visit.
Growth Up, Inflation Below Target
The economic baseline presented by the Fund looks unusually solid compared to recent years. Real GDP expanded by 6.2 percent in the first half of 2026, driven by strong investment performance, with full-year growth now projected at 5.7 percent.
Inflation hit 5.5 percent in October, holding below the Bank of Ghana's target band of 8±2 percent.
Fiscal numbers are also holding up, with the primary surplus on track to hit its end-year target and public debt remaining low after steep reductions over recent years.
Those accumulated buffers, Atoyan noted, are helping Ghana absorb external shocks tied to the conflict in the Middle East.
Reserve Drops and Corrective Action
Performance under the 36-month non-financing program, approved back in July 2026, was deemed broadly satisfactory with most quantitative targets met. However, falling foreign exchange reserves required swift intervention.
Authorities responded by shifting forex intermediation from the central bank to GoldBod and enforcing higher gold sale requirements on large-scale mining companies.
Atoyan urged continued discipline here, adding that "steadfast implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, will be essential to rebuild reserves in line with program objectives."
Structural Reforms Moving Ahead
On the structural front, the government published its Fiscal Strategy Document, secured parliamentary passage of the new Cocoa Board Act to fix governance and financial issues, and maintained quarterly power tariff adjustments.
A comprehensive review of customs and excise laws was also completed ahead of schedule.
Work continues on revising the Bank of Ghana's liquidity management framework, rolling out the Integrated Tax Administration System, getting the Fiscal Council operational, and preparing the Fiscal Risk Statement.
One notable delay remains the audit of ECG's collection accounts, which the IMF says must be published without further stall.
2027 Budget Framed Around New Economy
Looking ahead, the team said the upcoming 2027 Budget is anchored on a primary surplus target of 0.5 percent of GDP on a commitment basis, supported by tax measures approved by Parliament in July.
That fiscal cushion will go toward investment priorities under the government's New Economy agenda, aiming to close infrastructure gaps and create jobs.
Atoyan warned that getting value for money will require strict project appraisal, competitive bidding and tight spending controls to keep debt sustainable.
Non-oil revenue is expected to grow further in 2027, built on July's tax measures, customs legislative updates and electronic fiscal devices.
Risks That Won't Go Away
Despite the positive trajectory, the Fund warned against complacency.
Ghana remains vulnerable to swings in gold, cocoa and oil prices, alongside domestic debt rollover demands, fiscal drains from the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, and lingering financial sector weaknesses.
"Prudent monetary policy, greater exchange rate flexibility, stronger reserve buffers, and buildup of a sinking fund to pay for maturing debt remain key to safeguarding stability." - Atoyan
He also stressed that governance reforms, including passing the Conduct of Public Officers Bill and publishing the second National Ethics and Anti-Corruption Action Plan, are vital for maintaining public trust and investor confidence.
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